[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
23N27W TO 15N30W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH A AREA OF DRIER AIR
UNDERCUTTING THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 15N27W S OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N46W
10N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
53W-63W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN
32W-52W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 11N
W OF 11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS MEXICO AND A SECOND ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N93W ALONG 26N90W TO SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N83W TO
APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
23/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO
26N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N-30N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT N TODAY AND
TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG 26N TUE THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 76W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W ALONG 14N78W TO COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
W OF LINE FROM 20N85W TO 10N80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM 24N-28N W OF 78W
TO OVER S FLORIDA INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-31N W OF
75W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N28W AND A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W ALONG 27N55W TO A
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N70W TO OVER NE FLORIDA GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN
REACHING TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT S TUE THROUGH THU AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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