[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W/28W S OF
21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WITH A AREA OF DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ALL DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 15N26W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N30W ALONG 9N41W TO JUST OFF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 7N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 50W-63W INCLUDING THE ISLAND
OF TRINIDAD. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 37W-45W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE SW COAST OF
AFRICA BETWEEN 5N-10N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND A SECOND ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC.
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 23N90W
THEN N TO NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT AT 23/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N88W ALONG 26N87W TO NEAR
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
KEY WEST FLORIDA TO ACROSS S FLORIDA TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
22N-27N E OF 93W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL S TO ALONG 26N TUE THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 74W. MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. THIS IS PRODUCING A SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W ALONG 16N80W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 79W WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-79W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N74W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC S OF 30N TO OVER CUBA AND W OF 75W
TO OVER FLORIDA INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N26W AND A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N38W TO A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N67W TO
NE FLORIDA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST
COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN REACHING TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT
THEN SHIFT S TUE THROUGH THU AS WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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