[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 12N TO
19N. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...15N60W...
AND 11N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W FROM SAINT VINCENT NEAR 13N TO 16N NEAR
GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND
65W...FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM
13N TO 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED. SOME STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N99W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL/COASTAL GAMBIA
NEAR 14N17W...12N28W AND 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W
TO 5N41W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W...DISORGANIZED AND
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N81W
ALONG THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS TO LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 79W
AND 92W. LINGERING RAINSHOWERS FROM 25N TO 28N TO THE EAST OF
94W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N90W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED. SOME
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N99W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 18N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N103W...
ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO AND TEXAS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 94W AND 108W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN THE GULF COAST AND 100W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15N60W...AND 11N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND 63W FROM SAINT VINCENT NEAR 13N
TO 16N NEAR GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W...FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N76W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COASTAL PANAMA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N
TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...FROM COASTAL PANAMA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N76W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N51W
7N53W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N17W TO 27N21W.
NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N31W TO
A 17N34W DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N37W.
NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N65W...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N82W...TOWARD THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 29N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net