[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 12N TO
19N. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 15N59W 12N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N62W 15N59W 11N56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N87W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ALONG
THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER...INTO WESTERN EL SALVADOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N90W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA
TO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 10N36W
AND 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W TO 8N53W AND 6N58W
IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W...
DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN
25W AND 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N81W
ALONG THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS TO LOUISIANA. REMNANT STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
24N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N87W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER...INTO WESTERN EL SALVADOR. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N90W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N102W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N100W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 101W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W FROM 16N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W. PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. THIS
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W TO 22N78W
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.

A SEPARATE BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
15N70W 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA IN COASTAL COLOMBIA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COASTAL PANAMA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN IN
A LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA
TO 9N80W IN NORTHERN COASTAL PANAMA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 64W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 33N56W TO A 29N63W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N68W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N76W IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N50W
8N51W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N17W TO 27N21W.
NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N30W TO AN
18N32W DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N35W.
NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N52W...29N63W...
TO 27N77W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W...AND NEAR BAFFIN BAY ALONG
THE SOUTH TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 29N BETWEEN 35W AND
70W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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