[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N51W TO 10N47W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO 11N67W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N24W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 6N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N E
OF 21W THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 95W INCLUDING THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SW NORTH
CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
24N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 28N88W TO INLAND OVER SW MISSISSIPPI/SE
LOUISIANA TO 31N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE NW
GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS S FLORIDA THROUGH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
23N84W TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR
E GULF AT 15/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 27N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL/W TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER CUBA...S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NW GULF MON AND MON NIGHT WHILE DISSIPATING. SURFACE
RIDGE NE OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE S TO ALONG 27N DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 18N W OF 75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR
20N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N TO
INLAND OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 80W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE BASIN BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W
OF 80W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 72W. TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY MON TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N76W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 15/0900 UTC
FROM NEAR 32N74W ALONG 30N77W TO 27N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 23N79W TO 31N73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR
WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 15N-33N E OF 40W
AND FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 40W-66W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NW AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE S AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
29N MON AND MON NIGHT AND TO 28N TUE THROUGH THU WITH A HIGH
CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 28N66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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