[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 10N45W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N65W TO 10N64W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 10N24W TO 8N33W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 10N30W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N43W THEN RESUMES
W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 10N-14N E OF 20W THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. AN
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E TENNESSEE EXTENDS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO 24N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS AT 15/0300 UTC FROM S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W INTO THE
GULF TO NEAR 25N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR MERIDA
ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N W OF 84W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF FROM 23N86W
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 83W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NW AND DISSIPATE BY SUN AS A SURFACE
RIDGE N OF THE AREA MOVES S INTO THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 17N W OF 72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 17N83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO INLAND
OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 72W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN BANKING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 79W-83W.
THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W. TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT TO ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN BY MON AND TUE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N75W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 15/0300 UTC
FROM N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W ALONG 31N71W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE
OF THE TROUGH W OF 70W AND N OF 27N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE E CONUS COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND TO OVER
CUBA AND HAITI. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TROUGH 32N47W TO 24N69W
AND A SECOND STRONGER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 35N GIVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 14N-33N E OF 40W AND FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN
40W-65W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER
THE FAR NW PORTION BY LATE SUN ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
BEGIN TO SLIDE S SUN NIGHT TO ALONG 28N MON THROUGH WED AS A
HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 28N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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