[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED AT 12/0600 UTC FROM 14N27W TO 9N25W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N40W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
9N43W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ WHILE THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W
ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 19N79W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALONG THE W SIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO E OF THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
10N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N26W TO
JUST E OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N41W AND RESUMES W OF THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 23W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW/NW
MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS INTO THE GULF NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
TO PENSACOLA FLORIDA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF
CENTERED NEAR 24N88W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR CEDAR
KEY FLORIDA AND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM N OF 24N
TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND E OF 88W TO OVER S
FLORIDA AND A PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N94W TO INLAND OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 21N W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS INLAND OVER TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE COAST W OF A LINE FROM LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE NE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT SE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP INTO THE
NW GULF TODAY QUICKLY STALLING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO
NEAR 26N94W. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD W TONIGHT PUSHING REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT NW OF AREA EARLY FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI
THROUGH LATE SUN THEN WEAKEN LOSING IDENTITY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE SW GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S
PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE YUCATAN PASSAGE FRI NIGHT AND W OF THE
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E
CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH
MON. MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE BASIN EXCEPT STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N39W THROUGH A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 25N62W
TO A THIRD SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 28N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 68W-80W
AND FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
21N-26N BETWEEN 44W-56W AND FROM 20N-32N W OF 57W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF
32N TO 70W THEN DROPPING S ALONG 30N80W TO OVER NE GULF OF
MEXICO GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN
DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 10N-28N E OF 43W. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN N OF AREA THROUGH
EARLY SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N E
OF 68W SAT NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N68W. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI NIGHT CONTINUING W TO THE W
ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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