[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N40W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
9N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ WHILE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
SURROUNDING THE LOW.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W ACROSS CUBA
TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALONG THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
LOW. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 13N22W 8N23W TO 6N30W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO JUST E OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N40W AND
RESUMES W OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N42W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 11N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW/NW
MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF CENTERED
NEAR 23N88W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA
AND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 82W-93W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE FAR E GULF.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU THEN WILL STALL FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SE TEXAS THU NIGHT MOVING BACK NW OF AREA
ON FRI. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ON THU REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER CUBA WHERE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 83W-86W TO OVER W CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON
SAT THROUGH SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N37W THROUGH A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR 25N60W
TO A THIRD SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 31N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 68W-77W
AND FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
20N-32N W OF 60W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF 32N E OF BERMUDA THEN DROPPING S ALONG
30N72W TO JUST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER
THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 10N-28N E OF 35W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
ENTER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
ATLC LATE FRI INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SAT AND APPROACHING THE
BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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