[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 23N26W 13N31W. THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V FOR THIS WAVE
SHOWS UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING
THROUGH THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO...TO CURACAO IN THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EASTERN GUATEMALA...
CURVING INTO EL SALVADOR...AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF SENEGAL
AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...13N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N27W TO 8N33W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT AFTER
7N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...REACHING THE COAST OF
GUYANA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 20W AND
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N42W 15N45W 10N49W 6N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N57W...
TO A 30N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST ALONG 27N...TO A 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 90W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N101W CENTRAL TEXAS UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 20N WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 94W...AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N56W TO 28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W...
TO 26N60W TO A 24N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 13N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUTTING
THROUGH THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO...TO CURACAO IN THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N83W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
75W AND 78W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 76W IN THE GULF OF URABA TO THE EASTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W...AND FOR THE 67W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
35N46W 29N47W 22N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N56W TO 28N71W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SWEEPING ACROSS SPAIN AND PORTUGAL
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 31N20W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
9N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W...AND FOR THE 20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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