[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N28W 18N29W 11N30W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 23N26W 13N31W. THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V FOR THIS WAVE SHOWS UP
WELL IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...JUST TO
THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO BONAIRE IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
14N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...
THROUGH EASTERN EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF COSTA RICA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS EL SALVADOR AND
ITS COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SHORE TO 11N. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W TO 14N20W 10N25W AND 8N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N37W
TO 8N46W...AND NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 53W AND
56W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS ALONG 22N42W 17N42W 10N47W 6N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N63W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
TO A 26N84W EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 32N TO 33N
BETWEEN 60W AND 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ANDROS ISLAND...IN THE
WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...NEAR 23N77W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N100W CENTRAL TEXAS UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 92W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N91W...AND IN MEXICO
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N100W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N48W TO 29N55W 28N70W...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1017 MB EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE BAHAMAS...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W
TO 28N60W 26N68W TO A 25N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 13N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W. ANY EARLIER
PRECIPITATION IN CUBA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...JUST TO
THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO BONAIRE IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
AND SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
14N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER...
BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W...AND FOR THE 66W
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
33N47W 28N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N48W TO 29N55W 28N70W...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1017 MB EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8N TO
18N BETWEEN 45W AND 61W...AND FOR THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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