[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N20W 8N21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. THE WAVE HAS LEFT
A SOUTHERN VORTICITY CENTER THAT STILL IS IN AFRICA...
ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 10N51W BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W FROM 12N NEAR
COLOMBIA...TO 18N IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N77W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 16N77W UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...IS MOVING
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 70W AND WESTERN CUBA. THIS INCLUDES COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 7N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 10N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM
7N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO TO THE WEST
OF 100W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W...THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO AN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT IS BETWEEN
THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS NEARLY ALL
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA GULF COAST/COASTAL
WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N71W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N85W...CONTINUING TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N56W REACHES THE
FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N...TO THE WEST OF 60W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N77W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W FROM 12N NEAR
COLOMBIA...TO 18N IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N77W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 16N77W UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...IS MOVING
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND WESTERN CUBA. THIS INCLUDES COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND
10N84W IN COSTA RICA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS...WITHIN 180 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF PANAMA AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA
FROM LAND TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
IN GENERAL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 75W
TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH
0F 17N IN A FEW AREAS.


.ATLC FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT. FROM 16N TO 24N E OF 40W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W NE TO E
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. FROM 13N TO 21N E OF 42W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W NE TO E
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL. FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
39W AND 49W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN E SWELL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N56W...TO
29N68W AND 28N75W...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N37W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 33N39W 30N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N59W...THROUGH
27N71W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N
TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W...AND FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN
47W AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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