[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N18W 12N19W 8N19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 4N9W TO 11N21W 13N18W.
THE WAVE MOVED OFF AFRICA DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.
IT HAS LEFT A SOUTHERN VORTICITY CENTER THAT STILL IS IN
AFRICA...ABOUT 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N47W 14N47W 10N46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND
50W...AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 12N TO 18N
IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 16N77W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT
IS ABOUT 210 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 16N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...IS MOVING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND
77W. THIS INCLUDES COVERING ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL WATERS
OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
20N16W TO 10N25W AND 8N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N35W TO
11N44W 10N49W AND 10N61W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W...FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN
43W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO TO THE WEST
OF 100W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W...THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT
IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS NEARLY ALL
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES AROUND A FLORIDA BIG BEND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING JUST
TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FROM 29N TO 30N IN FLORIDA
ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 27N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N90W...CONTINUING TO THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N56W REACHES THE
FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BETWEEN CUBA
AND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD AND THE ARCHIPELAGO DE LOS
CANARREOS...BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEY...
AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 62W.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N77W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 12N TO 18N IN SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 210 NM
TO THE EAST OF A 16N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW...THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. THIS INCLUDES COVERING
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 8N79W
BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 83W AND 84W A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH IN EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF
IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 73W
TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N56W...TO
29N68W AND 28N75W...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND 62W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 62W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N37W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N41W 27N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN
37W AND 41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N59W...THROUGH 27N71W...BEYOND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N
TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
54W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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