[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO
2N30W TO BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-38W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OF HOUSTON NEAR 29N95W
TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. A SQUALL LINE IS JUST E OF THE
FRONT FROM PORT ARTHUR TEXAS TO 24N96W. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION DEPICTS NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITHIN 15 NM OF THE SQUALL
LINE. 15-20 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. 15-20 KT
SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER IS S OF THE SQUALL LINE.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND IN THE
80'S OVER CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE E GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SE SURFACE
FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO S GEORGIA AT
31N81W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS FURTHER SE NEAR 29N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO 24N42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N26W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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