[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA CROSSING THE SRN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 5N9W ALONG 5N18W 2N27W 3N42W EQ53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
MATAGORDA BAY AT 29N96W TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AT 26N97W. THE
SQUALL LINE PRECEDES A COLD FRONT FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WRN TEXAS/NRN MEXICO SUPPORTS
THE FRONT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE ITS WAY ACROSS THE BASIN. FOR NOW...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH AXIS UP THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN
BESIDES THE NW CORNER. MAINLY SE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS SPREAD OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS WITH LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AHEAD AND ALONG THE
AXIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
MOST OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 81W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE FAR NERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR AND IS CAUSING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE BASIN.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW
PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED NEAR JAMAICA AND ALONG THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO...ERN CONUS AND WRN
ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 81W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A PAIR OF
1024/1025 MB HIGHS NEAR 32N62W AND 30N66W RESPECTIVELY. THIS PATTERN
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STILL COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N44W TO THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 32N40W 27N47W 20N49W 14N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 49W-55W. A LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 19N46W 25N41W
32N37W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
31W SUPPORTING A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N27W WHICH IS PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. EXPECT WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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