[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
ITCZ ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR
3N CONTINUING ALONG 2N7W 5N21W 3N35W 4N45W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS EXITING THE N GULF
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF AT 15/2100
UTC EXTENDING FROM 224N96W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED AT 15/2100 UTC BY A 1031
MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N86W AND IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD LEAVING THE E GULF COAST ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. THIS IS ALSO ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SHIFT EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF THROUGH TUE. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA SW TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY WED AND FROM
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING THEN WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING
BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN ALONG 20N83W TO ALONG
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM W OF THE FRONT FROM ACROSS CUBA. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS BASIN N OF 15N.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N E OF 70W TO OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING OVER THE W ATLC N OF
26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N58W ALONG 26N67W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO CUBA NEAR
HOLGUIN WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS JUST TO THE E
OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH. A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 31N16W 26N29W TO 17N46W
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS TO THE SE TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA ENHANCING HIGH CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 9N37W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN GUINEA BISSAU AND SW PORTION OF THE
WESTERN SAHARA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM SW OF THE AZORES.
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND
TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE E ATLC ON WED. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE GULF WILL SHIFT E TO OVER THE W ATLC MON INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH WED WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FLORIDA THU BEFORE
STALLING FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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