[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS S OF NW AFRICA ALONG 3N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN
4N10W 5N30W 4N40W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 1W-7W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR
29N89W DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS. A COOL AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE BASIN WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER AND
INCREASE IN SPEED OUTWARD ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GULF AND NW
CORNER WHERE WINDS REACH UP TO 15 KTS. DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS
RUNNING INTO THE COASTLINE IN THE SW GULF...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COAST IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALOFT...SW FLOW COVERS THE WRN GULF AROUND
THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN MEXICO ALONG
103W. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OVER THE ERN
SEABOARD AND W ATLC. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
THE WRN GULF WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT TO THE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE RETURN FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF
TO SPREAD EWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW DISSIPATING AND
STATIONARY...EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NE OF BELIZE ALONG 21N85W TO
18N88W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AN ARC FROM THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W
AND TOWARDS THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N82W. THE WIND DIRECTION
FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL ARCING PATTERN WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS
REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN
THE NW CORNER TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N59W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC
ALONG 66W TO THE N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1034 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N31W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 45N26W SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SE WITH AXIS FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 17N44W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 23N18W TO
11N16W. NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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