[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ
ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 4N
CONTINUING ALONG 5N13W 3N31W 2N45W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
33W-39W AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE N GULF N
OF 26N WITH NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM
19N92W NW TO 23N97W EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DENSE LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SW OF A LINE FROM 26N96W TO S
MEXICO NEAR 18N92W AND INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A MIX OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE GULF S OF 27N LEAVING THE N
GULF COAST ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE OF GULF SUN WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF BY MON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE
TUE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO NE MEXICO EARLY
WED FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU MORNING BEFORE
STALLING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 20N85W TO ALONG THE
COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY STABLE AIR
ACROSS BASIN E OF THE ABOVE FRONT. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING WHILE THE COLD FRONT N OF THE
ISLANDS CONTINUES EASTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE U.S. EXTENDS OVER THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVER BERMUDA
EXTENDING ALONG 26N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER
CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM W OF FRONT N OF CUBA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 70W. A VERY LARGE
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC TO 15N E OF 50W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 26N18W 20N20W 13N19W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH W OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL REACH
FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA SUN AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
MON AND THE E ATLC BY WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD E ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE WED AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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