[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ SKIMS THE SRN COASTS OF GHANA...IVORY COAST...AND
LIBERIA ALONG 4N3W TO 5N9W AND CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 3N43W 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH S OF THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER NEAR 29N94W DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW IN THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. A COLD
AIR MASS SITS OVER THE BASIN WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WINDS ARE LIGHT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER AND
INCREASE IN SPEED OUTWARD ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE GULF WHERE NE
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE OBSERVED. ALOFT...WSWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS
THE AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
W/CENTRAL ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OVER THE ERN
CONUS. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES THE
FAR NRN GULF COAST. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W TO 18N92W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SRN GULF. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS WWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W
ATLC HAS BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CUBA NEAR
22N82W TO BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM SE...AND 75 NM NW OF THE AXIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AN ARC FROM THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO S OF HISPANIOLA AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
AMERICA COAST NEAR COSTA RICA. THE WIND DIRECTION FOLLOWS THIS
GENERAL ARCING PATTERN WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS REACHING 30 KTS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH THE FRONT REMAINING RELATIVELY
STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLE DRIFTING TO THE SE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND NW ATLC ALONG 78W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUD COVER WITHIN 300 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034-1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF
THE AREA AND JUST W OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 45N39W SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E WITH AXIS
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 18N44W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AFRICAN
COAST ALONG 28N18W TO 15N19W. NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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