[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N16W ALONG
4N22W 3N35W 4N47W 3N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND
A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15
KTS ARE AROUND THE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
BASIN. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WRN GULF
WHICH MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WRN
GULF ALONG 95W...BUT IT IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH RANGING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SW CONUS THAT WILL IMPACT THE GULF IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN
VENEZUELA IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA...WRN
CUBA...JAMAICA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW
OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING 25 KTS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
29N81W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC.
FARTHER E...A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 64W-67W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 65W-73W.
ALOFT...MAINLY WLY FLOW COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN AROUND
THE N SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND
SOME OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
32N40W SUPPORTING A COLLOCATED 1017 MB SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N38W 25N41W
DISSIPATING TO 24N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM E OF
THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S ALONG 23N40W TO 17N43W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 MB
HIGH N OF SPAIN NEAR 47N8W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THIS AREA CONSISTS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W....WHICH
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ALONG 31W
AND 4W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO DRIFT S
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTED TO IT
DISSIPATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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