[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
8N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N18W 3N30W TO 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MOSTLY WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS AROUND 70 KT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. A
1023 MB SURFACE IS PRES IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A
RIDGE FROM THE HIGH TO THE NE COAST OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WELL W
OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DRIVE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE ONLY SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED TO MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW AND S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE TRADES OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
LOW TOP SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA...GENERALLY FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 55W-70W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF
40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N41W TO 15N40W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE S IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 33W-43W.
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N40W TO 24N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS




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