[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA AND ENDS AT THE COAST
OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N11W ALONG 5N20W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO 2S33W THEN RECROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 41W TO EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-50W...AND
WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W
CONTINUING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N94W AND INTO
MEXICO. A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG THE FRONT WITH LITTLE
OTHER ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...STRONG
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW GULF. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW
GULF. MOIST SWLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHING GALE FORCE STRENGTH UP TO 45 KTS S OF 22N W OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE WRN
PORTION BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INTO THE W ATLC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BUILT OVER THE
AREA SUPPORTING STRONG ELY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN
REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMALL PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W CONTINUING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS OF 1500 UTC. A SMALL LINE
OF SHOWERS IS ALONG THE AXIS WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE
CONUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
40N49W SUPPORTING A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N38W WHICH IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N52W TO 20N51W SUPPORTING POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES
ISLANDS TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 32N28W TO 25N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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