[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO EQ30W
TO 1S40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-1N BETWEEN 27W-32W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR
18N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE FRONT
OVER MEXICO AND THE NW GULF FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 89W-98W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-26N W OF FRONT. 25-30 KT NE WINDS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S
OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN CONTRAST S OF THE FRONT 5 KT S
WINDS ARE NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-76W. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE
OVER COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 26N30W 23N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 22W-30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER 30N30W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH
THE E ATLANTIC FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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