[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG 01S TO 03S41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WHILE MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF 32N...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N
WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST BY 24/1200 UTC. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER SE
TEXAS AND UPON ENTERING THE GULF WILL RESULT IN STRONG N-NE
WINDS...WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW GULF S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N73W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.
FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION THIS MORNING...PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE W
OF 45W. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A 1031
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N39W...EXTENDING
FROM THE HIGH TO 32N44W THEN W-SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
24N80W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 40N30W TO 25N35W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N28W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 29N30W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 23N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING...
DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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