[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W THEN TO 03S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WHILE MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF 32N...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N
WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST BY 24/1200 UTC. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NORTH
TEXAS AND UPON ENTERING THE GULF WILL RESULT IN STRONG N-NE
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N75W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. FRESH TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION THIS EVENING...PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N41W...EXTENDING FROM THE
HIGH TO 32N48W THEN W-SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 40N31W TO 25N36W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W. THE
FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
22N50W TO 22N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH FAR WESTERN REACHES OF THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE...DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST...ANCHORED BY
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA...THE
BAY OF BISCAY...AND FRANCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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