[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 01W-07W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N WESTWARD TO
THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AND RESULT IN STRONG N-NE WINDS WITH GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N74W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A 1030 MB
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
35N46W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 35W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 25N THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W. THE
FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 26N38W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
23N45W TO 22N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
S OF 28N. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N15W THAT RESULTS
IN STRONG NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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