[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N18W TO 01N33W TO 02N41W TO 01N50. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 04W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE ALOFT...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE BAHAMAS ALONG 24N WESTWARD TO THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY FRIDAY AND RESULT IN STRONG N-NE
WINDS WITH GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N76W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THE ABSENCE OF A
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A 1028 MB
SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
34N50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 37W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 23N AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES ALONG 26N40W TO 23N48W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
20N57W AND DISSIPATING WESTWARD TO 21N68W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF
27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 40N16W THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG NE
TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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