[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
02N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W THEN ALONG 01S TO 48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 14W-29W...AND FROM
02N-06N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO 23N97W. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N79W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER
WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT W OF 50W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
35N62W. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS
TROUGHING TO 28N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W THAT
CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N50W TO 22N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF
28N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 39N17W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N24W TO
22N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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