[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
01N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N23W TO 02N35W TO 02N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N-04N BETWEEN 12W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO 29N88W TO 26N97W. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N81W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER
WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT W OF 50W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA
NEAR 36N66W. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLC AND
EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 30N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N43W THAT CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N50W TO 22N60W TO 22N67W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N WHILE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 28N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST
OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO
32N26W TO 23N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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