[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W TO 01N44W THEN TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN
23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 22N86W CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...OBSERVED WINDS ARE
NORTHERLY AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS FOR
THIS HIGH IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND EXTENDS S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
ESTABLISHING RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N83W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
INFLUENCES MOST OF THE BASIN WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS AND AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AREAS. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER
WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINING
W OF 50W WHILE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE
NORTH CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A GALE FORCE 1000 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N76W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. WITH THE STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOCATED NORTH OF 32N...THE FRONT REMAINS
RATHER DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN
30 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE LOW AND FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AND EXIT THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION BY TUESDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR
41N19W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N27W THEN W-SW TO
EAST OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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