[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W TO
EQ30W TO BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
TO FT MYERS FLORIDA TO CANCUN MEXICO. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. 15-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
50'S AND 60'S OVER THE NORTH GULF AND THE 80'S OVER THE SE GULF
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW LINGERS OVER THE GULF
WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE E
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 80W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO
...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 80W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MOVING E. A 1022
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN
40W-60W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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