[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW
ALONG 2N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN BETWEEN 20W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5S TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-35W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
W-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF AROUND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS NE MEXICO
AND SE TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W ALONG 28N90W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS
NEAR 27N97W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N85W TO 25N91W. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF
THE NRN HALF OF THE GULF N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF TEXAS N OF 28N W OF 93W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS
GENERATING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO SURFACE
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS IN THIS AREA. SHORT RANGE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INTRODUCED TO
THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF
DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA...PUERTO
RICO...JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA N OF 12N ASSOCIATED TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND LAND-SEA BREEZE/INSTABILITY. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 25 KT. THE OVERALL
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN MOVING OFF THE
ERN CONUS SEABOARD OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THESE ARE MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ENOUGH TO TAKE TURNS IN PUSHING/SUPPORTING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N70W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N75W
TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N81W. WIDESPREAD WEAK SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING N OF 26N W OF 70W. TO THE SE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
...A 1019 MG HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N69W GIVING FAIR WEATHER TO
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 63W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS NE OF THE CARIBBEAN LEEWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
23N60W TO 20N62W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING
COMPRESSED/SQUISHED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES OCCUPYING THE WRN
AND ERN BASINS. THEREFORE...ITS INFLUENCE IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO PLACE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N45W ALONG 23N50W TO 18N50W
GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
18N BETWEEN 40W-50W. WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION IS N OF 24N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NE OF THE
AZORES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF
40W WITH  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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