[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO
2N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W...FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-40W...AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N83W TO THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N90W TO S TEXAS NEAR
27N98W. RAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NE GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-90W...AND OVER THE W GULF
FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 90W-96W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO DRIFT TO 30N WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. ALSO EXPECT
A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS MOVING E.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 63W-72W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
68W-82W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN
82W-85W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W WITH ZONAL FLOW ELSEWHERE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. THE TAIL END
OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 32N55W TO 29N60W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N45W TO 25N50W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE
AZORES NEAR 41N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 25N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-55W PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 18N BETWEEN
44W-51W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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