[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 26W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 4S37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8S-4N BETWEEN 30W-37W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...AND DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE WRN GULF...AND THE NRN
GULF. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC IS
KEEPING THE SE CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS IMPACTING BY
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
31N84W TO 28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM
TO 27N94W AS IT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
28N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE AXIS ALONG 27N89W TO
24N94W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
ARE HELPING PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N83W
TO 22N98W WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT MOSTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NRN GULF. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE
GULF WATERS LATER ON SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO NRN COLOMBIA...BUT DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN BECOMING 15-20 IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. FEW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BESIDES SOME
LOW TOPPED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW N OF VENEZUELA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND TO
THE S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN COVERS THE
WRN ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
NEAR 27N73W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W TO 29N70W WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 51W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 32N43W 29N47W 26N53W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS SW OF
THE FRONT NEAR 23N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT
ALONG 27N54W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N61W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 50W-53W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL
N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N18W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON





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