[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW
ALONG EQ30W 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-5N BETWEEN 28W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE
ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF BASIN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND ENTERS THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO 28N92W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS ALONG 26N97W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N90W
ALONG 23N94W TO 20N95W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SURFACE
FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N84W TO 23N97W.
AREAS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COINCIDING WITH THE AREA OF MOST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE WATER
SPOUTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AMONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BOUNDARIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WITH COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER NE MEXICO AND
THE NW GULF THAT WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE SE CONUS. AN
ASSOCIATED MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
THE SE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA GIVING A RELATIVELY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE
ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA...SOUTH-WEST OF PUERTO RICO...AND
SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THESE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 30 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA EXTENDS RIDGING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...PROVIDING
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N60W TO 28N70W...BUT CARRYING NO CONVECTION. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A 1024 MG HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N72W
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
16N BETWEEN 37W-64W SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY  EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 32N42W TO 26N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO A DISSIPATING 1017 MB LOW NEAR 24N60W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W. DESPITE SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE GREATEST AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTICED FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 50W-58W...
ASSOCIATED TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NE ATLC INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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