[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N19W
3N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1S46W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROF/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W-16W AND 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SE OVER THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E OKLAHOMA. A 1016 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N93W AT 09/0300 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING E ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CROSSING THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N84W CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF
28N W OF 90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL DRIFT N THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SE. THE LOW WILL THEN MERGE WITH A QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
PASS E OF THE AREA SAT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N84W CONTINUING
OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN. AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 66W TO
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
N OUT OF THE BY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SAT AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATING
ALONG 18N ON MON AS THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVERS THROUGH
THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC E OF 55W WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 22N80W INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO A
1016 MB SURFACE LOW THAT AT 09/0300 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 28N74W
CONTINUING TO 31N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W TO
BEYOND 32N70W. A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE
AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W ALONG 27N53W TO
24N70W. UPPER LEVEL ENE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS IS TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND GENERATING AN AREA OF
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE
FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W TO 10N23W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W
ATLC SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE TROUGH ON THU FROM NEAR 31N69W TO 27N74W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO W CUBA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING AND BECOME ORIENTED
ALONG 25N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC SAT REACHING FROM E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA
BY LATE SUN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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