[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 6N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N20W EQ34W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W
TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO A 1016 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
IN ADDITION THE LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W AND S OF 28W. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP OVER THE NW GULF WHERE 15-20
KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG
75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS....AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGHS. THE TAIL END
OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N40W TO 28N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
42N18W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST OFF WEST AFRICA E OF 45W FROM 10N-25N SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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