[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N9W TO 4N11W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N21W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-44W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO THE GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA AND COVERING THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING S ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. NE SURFACE
FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF GENERATING
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A
LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N83W S OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W INTO THE W ATLC
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE ACROSS GULF THROUGH SUN.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SW BAY OF CAMPECHE THU
THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT E ACROSS S GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW TO ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 84W.
THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E
TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND BANKING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INLAND
OVER PANAMA S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-82W. AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W TO
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE E PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA SAT
AND SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC E OF 60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W ALONG 29N79W INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 40W N OF 27N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND THE FRONT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N45W TO 16N48W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN AREA OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE W TROPICAL ATLC ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 55W-70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATE THU AND STALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W
ATLC LATE FRI AND MERGE WITH TROUGH THEN SWEEPING E ON SAT. S
PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 25N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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