[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080946
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N11W TO 3N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N20W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-42W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 2W
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO SE LOUISIANA AND COVERING
THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W GULF
WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE GULF EXTENDING S FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. NE SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR HAVANA CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND S FLORIDA NEAR
25N81W INTO THE W ATLC NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 25N E OF 84W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH SUN. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME SW BAY OF CAMPECHE THU THROUGH SAT THEN WILL SHIFT E
ACROSS THE S GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW TO OVER W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W. THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E TO
NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INLAND OVER PANAMA S OF 12N BETWEEN 75-82W.
AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE W
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN
ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 68W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN AS SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA SAT AND SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND
NE FLORIDA ALONG 78W N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT JUST N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-78W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC E
OF 60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 66W-71W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N76W SW
ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALONG 40W N OF 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N46W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W THROUGH THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 25N44W TO 17N47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120/150 NM W
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 53W-65W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH
WED. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA WED
MERGING WITH THE TROUGH FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY THU AFTERNOON AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC
SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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