[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO
02N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND WESTWARD ALONG 01S TO 02S42W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN
18W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AXIS FROM 30N89W TO 27N85W THAT IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 86W-92W. WHILE
THE SURFACE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS NOW DISSIPATED...NORTHEASTERLY WIND DOMINATES OVER
MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
HOLD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE WESTERN GULF. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY INCREASING
E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 23N...WITH A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N79W S-SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 26N82W TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND INTO A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF
28N AND OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-26N E OF 85W...
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO ATLC WATERS E OF 80W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND CLEAR
THE GULF BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 40W-90W. THIS IS RESULTING IN
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN AS EASTERLY TRADES
PERSIST WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE
FEATURE LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION IS A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 22N85W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NE OF THE
LOW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF
32N W OF 40W. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
FROM 37N75W TO 32N77W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 32N78W TO 28N81W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
26N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W AND
CONTINUES W-SW TO 29N60W WHERE THE FRONT BEGINS TO BRIDGE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND 32N67W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
25N52W TO THE FRONT NEAR 32N47W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-60W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF
60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 40N17W. OF NOTE WITH STRONG E TO NE WINDS OCCURRING
OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA...THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGES ALONG WITH THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LATER TRACKING
PRODUCT INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 08N-25N E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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