[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W AND WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATOR TO
49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 17W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AXIS ALONG 29N95W TO 25N90W THAT IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN
86W-94W. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS BECAME DIFFUSE AND HAS NOW DISSIPATED...
NORTHEASTERLY WIND NOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY INCREASING E-NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF N OF 23N...WITH A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING
OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN THE
SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO 26N82W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N84W AND INTO A BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF 28N AND OVER THE SE GULF WATERS FROM 23N-28N E OF
85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO ATLC WATERS E OF
80W. THIS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND
CLEAR THE GULF BASIN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 40W-90W. THIS IS RESULTING IN
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN AS EASTERLY TRADES
PERSIST WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE ONLY SURFACE
FEATURE LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG
23N84W TO 19N84W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF
32N W OF 40W. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
FROM 35N73W TO 30N77W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 33N77W TO 29N79W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
26N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N51W AND CONTINUES W-SW ALONG 30N56W TO 29N66W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 40N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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