[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N13W TO 01N18W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
02N-05N BETWEEN 08W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 31W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
SW CONUS AND PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING. BENEATH THE ADVECTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD...A COLD FRONT WHICH REMAINS SLOW MOVING IS
ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W SW TO 25N94W THEN
SOUTH TO 19N96W AND INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SW GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N90W TO 18N95W. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN
STRONG TO GALE FORCE FROM 23N TO 25N W OF THE FRONT AND THIS
CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUICKLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS LOCATED NEAR 23N84W. A
1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 25N84W.
WHILE SURFACE CIRCULATION WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO
THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SURFACE LOW...MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
80W-85W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE NW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ASIDE FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NE INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE
A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ONE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N79W TO
15N85W...AND THE OTHER N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-86W THAT INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN S OF
30N W OF 40W AND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N43W TO 27N60W TO 27N75W. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
THE WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING W OF
75W. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA FROM 36N58W TO 32N75W AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
SLOWLY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE N OF 30N THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N23W THAT SUPPORTS A WESTWARD DRIFTING SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 19N31W TO 26N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 15W-24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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