[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N87W 22N86W 20N85W
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 22N87W...AS OF 2100 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 24N89W
TO 18N83W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF WHERE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 19N-25N
BETWEEN 77W-88W. AREAS IN WRN CUBA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED UP TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WRN CUBA AND
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THE MOISTURE TOWARDS S FLORIDA. LOCAL
FORECASTS INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND S FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W
ALONG 3N35W TO 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-11W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 11W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 35W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TWO SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W ALONG 27N89W TO A 1017 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 25N94W
CONTINUING SWD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N95W WHERE IT MOVES
INLAND INTO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE FRONT AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING NW OF THE
FRONT AND INTO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND IS IMPACTING THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...SOME
HEAVY...ARE S OF 25N E OF 88W WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...MAINLY SWLY
FLOW ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ALONG 24N89W TO 18N83W SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM IN THE SE GULF. A
SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
OBSERVED. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE
EVENTUALLY BEING PULLED N AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SE GULF MOVES
TOWARDS THE NE. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
WRN CUBA AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. CURRENTLY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 19N BETWEEN
77W-88W INCLUDING MUCH OF WRN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF MOSTLY 20 KTS IS ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND WRN CUBA. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AROUND A 1023
MB HIGH NEAR 28N53W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN BESIDES SOME OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC ALONG 24W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH...DISSIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ALONG 32N37W 24N50W 23N61W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER
E ALONG 33W FROM 19N-26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E
OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A 1044 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SPAIN NEAR 41N16W
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
ALONG 24W IS ALSO SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS N OF THE
ITCZ REGION AND ACROSS W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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