[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N15W TO 03N25W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 06W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE GULF NEAR
CAMERON LOUISIANA THAT EXTENDS SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
24N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF
WATERS N OF 22N W OF 93W. WINDS ARE OBSERVED N-NE IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT WEST OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE NORTHERLY WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N90W TO A BASE OVER PANAMA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED E OF 90W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W TO 26N87W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN
83W-89W. WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE
EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO A BASE OVER PANAMA
NEAR 08N81W. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PERSISTS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HOWEVER INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND THEREFORE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF
14N W OF 76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. EASTERLY TRADES
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
65W-80W IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 75W
THIS EVENING...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR PUERTO
RICO...THE ABC ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
14N E OF 71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN W OF
40W AND THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL 1024
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. A COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 25N53W WHERE IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 23N64W TO 26N76W. MOST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 60W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 20N60W TO 24N50W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. EAST OF 35W...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 28W WHICH SUPPORTS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N32W TO 27N32W. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER IS SUPPORTING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF
28W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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