[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NRN
GUINEA AT 11N15W TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W ALONG
3N30W 3N44W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-33W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AT 30N94W TO THE SRN TIP
OF TEXAS AT 26N97W CONTINUING INTO MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA ENTERING THE GULF ALONG 30N91W TO
28N93W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AXIS. A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO NEAR THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS.
STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN
CONUS...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING
WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS HELPING
SUPPORT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF ALONG 91W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 23N88W TO 18N85W. SURFACE
CONFLUENCE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N BETWEEN
83W-89W. A SMALL PORTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SW GULF IS
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THAT PORTION OF
THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT AND LIKELY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE AXIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING SWD DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
PROVIDING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 21N87W TO 18N85W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND ERN
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN BESIDES THE NW CORNER NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE
BASIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC AROUND A 1030
MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC. TO
THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N43W 25N53W
DISSIPATING ALONG 23N65W TO 26N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N51W TO 20N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1041 MB
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SPAIN NEAR 43N14W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER W AFRICA TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE W ALONG 31W IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC AND W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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