[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
TO 5N13W AND 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO 5N20W AND
4N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO 1S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W
AND 30W...POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N30W 4N36W
4N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 93W/94W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO
NOW IS MOVING OVER FLORIDA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING
IN TEXAS. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE COMPLEX AND STILL
OVER LAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N98W 26N90W BEYOND
30N82W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH THE SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
26N82W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES FROM 26N82W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE AREA
OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 93W...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR
SO. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FEET...AT LEAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 14N60W
14N70W 12N82W 10N83W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...TOWARD A TROUGH THAT REACHES THE COAST
OF GUYANA.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC
FOR TRINIDAD...ACCORDING TO THE BULLETIN MIATPTPAN...WAS
0.85 OF AN INCH. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR
THE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE COAST OF GUYANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
26N82W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES FROM 26N82W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE AREA
OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...SKIRTING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W.

BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE CYCLONIC
SENSE OF THE WIND FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY MORE PRONOUNCED BETWEEN
76W AND 85W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W ALONG THE COASTS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
INITIAL CONDITIONS...20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET SEA FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO
25N72W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE WATER
THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...TO THE NORTH OF 32N/33N.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N73W 31N76W 29N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND
72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND
26N82W ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES FROM 26N82W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE AREA
OF EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W
TO 24N55W TO 18N55W...TOWARD THE COAST OF GUYANA.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED LOOSELY WITH THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W
TO 27N56W TO 23N62W AND 20N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 37W AND 55W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...A GALE WARNING AT THE 30 HOUR TIME DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE 31N79W 28N81W COLD FRONT...SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 31N51W TO 21N45W TO 18N35W.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 76W
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE ADVENT OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net