[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N22W
1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 14W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 57W-61W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE NE GULF COAST TO OVER THE E CONUS
ALONG 85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE E GULF TO 27N84W. THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE N GULF COUPLED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT
STREAMING E ACROSS MEXICO/S TEXAS TO OVER THE AREA ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH NW GULF
LATER TODAY AND EXTEND FROM THE SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF
CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WED EVENING AND DISSIPATE ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND SE GULF THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
FRI NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND
EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ALONG 12N78W TO 17N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM 16N760 TO 11N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY
TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE LATE TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NE. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ALONG 30N WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF SE CONUS NOW ALONG 74W N
OF 29N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W
TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 30N75W TO BEYOND 32N71W. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THROUGH 32N50W ALONG 27N56W TO NEAR 23N63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-58W.
THE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N26W. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS JUST INLAND OVER AFRICA SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MOROCCO. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE E ALONG 31N. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO S FLORIDA WED EVENING FROM 32N67W TO
CENTRAL CUBA THU EVENING AND FROM 32N62W TO 22N77W FRI EVENING
AS A DISSIPATING FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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