[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W TO 6N17W 4N30W
AND 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N
IN GUYANA TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO ALONG 100W.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 100W MEXICO RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT ALREADY HAS
MOVED THROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR THE APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE MEXICO
COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 21N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 16N69W 12N76W...AND TO COASTAL PANAMA IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BEYOND MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM
20N65W...TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 15N70W 11N78W...TO THE
PANAMA COAST ALONG 81W/82W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N68W 13N69W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N70W. THE 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THE
TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC FOR CURACAO...ACCORDING
TO THE BULLETIN...MIATPTPAN...WAS 0.77 OF AN INCH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 71W. OTHER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 18N68W
16N75W 15N83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN WESTERN COASTAL PANAMA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 18N68W 16N75W 15N83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...AS INITIAL
CONDITIONS...TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W
TO 25N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N48W TO 27N55W 23N66W AND 23N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF
24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N61W 23N58W 27N52W BEYOND 32N45W...AND WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 26N46W 30N43W.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N76W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF THE 32N48W 23N76W COLD FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 27N29W 21N33W 14N35W AND 9N38W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N22W TO 31N24W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N24W TO 28N30W AND 26N35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N TO 27N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN
10W AND 20W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N25W AND 19N36W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE 31N58W 20N70W COLD
FRONT...AS INITIAL CONDITIONS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 75W
TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT AND
ELSEWHERE TO 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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