[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N19W
4N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
16W-27W AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS
MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W. THE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NW GULF COAST FROM CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N
GULF MON THEN STALL AS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N MON NIGHT AND
TUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN RACE SE ACROSS THE REGION
TUE AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS TUE NIGHT AND FROM
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY WED AND OUT OF THE
GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO E OF JAMAICA NEAR
17N75W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N67W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
18N64W TO OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N67W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITHIN 150 NM
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
W CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SW AND S/
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N58W ALONG 25N62W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 10N E OF 40W
SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N27W CONTINUING ALONG 24N31W TO 22N35W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 20N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-30N. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT E ALONG 30N. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TUE REACHING FROM 31N71W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED AND FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA
BY LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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