[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA TO 6N12W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N12W TO 6N20W 5N27W AND 3N38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 21W AND 29W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
GEORGIA TO 28N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 19N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N91W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N86W NEAR
THE COAST OF CUBA. A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
25N90W AND 22N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND E OF 88W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. WEST OF 88W FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 21N97W AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.
IN 24 HOURS...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. THE BROAD WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE
AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS PARTS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED S OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 64W TO 73W. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DRY
AIR IS SUBSIDING PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. IN 24 HOURS...EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN 15-20 KT WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 78W FROM
FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N...OVER GRAND BAHAMA AND
ANDROS ISLAND...TO 29N. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE GULF IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N
TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. NE OF THE TROUGH A SURFACE HIGH
OF 1020 MB ANCHORED NEAR 29N67W IS DISSIPATING. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 62W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 30N36W 20N43W...WITH
ITS TAIL REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
42W....SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 20N
WITHIN 500 TO 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST TO THE W OF THE NORTHERN AFRICAN COAST WITH
SUBSIDING DRY AIR. IN THE SURFACE...A HIGH OF 1024 MB IS
ANCHORED NEAR 30N13W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE E ATLC N OF 10N.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/MT





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