[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE FAR E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N34W 4N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
E OF VERA CRUZ MEXICO SUPPORTING A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM AT 06/0900 UTC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR PENSACOLA TO OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W TO 27N91W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
28N90W ALONG 25N90W TO 24N93W. A PRECEDING SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N88W ALONG 24N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N88W TO 25N85W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND N OF 27N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
89W-93W AND IN THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO CUBA E OF 85W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DRIFT NW AND DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MON MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N46W ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN
MAINLY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS
TO OVER MARTINIQUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. REMNANT MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-83W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
29N77W ALONG 25N78W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N
OF 25N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE TO THE COAST OF
FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 67W FROM
20N TO BEYOND 32N WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N73W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W
SUPPORTING A 996 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 32N39W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ALONG 27N39W 20N47W TO TO OVER MARTINIQUE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLC AND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N46W ALONG 25N29W TO
BEYOND 32N22W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 16N40W TO BEYOND 32N32W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 30W ANCHORED INLAND
OVER AFRICA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND COLLAPSE
THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES PAST THE NORTHERN
WATERS. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT W AND AMPLIFY
THROUGH FRI AS IT MOVES OVER FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NE OF THE AREA FRI THROUGH SUN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NW WATERS LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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